(9 Jan 2025)
RESTRICTION SUMMARY:
ASSOCIATED PRESS
Dubai, United Arab Emirates – 08 January 2025
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1. SOUNDBITE (English) Jon Gambrell, AP’s news director for the Gulf and Iran:
"Iran faces a challenging year ahead, and that’s even before President-elect Donald Trump enters the White House. Already we’ve seen its allies in the so-called Axis of Resistance, that includes Syria, that includes the Lebanese Shiite militia, Hezbollah, and the Palestinian militant group Hamas, basically decimated. For (Bashar) Assad, it came at the end of a rebel advance. For those militant groups, it came at the end of Israeli devastating attacks. Now at home, Iran faces really an economic crisis of staggering proportions. Its rial currency continues just to nosedive. About a third of the country, according to its parliament, remains unable to meet their needs of their families. They live in functional poverty. And meanwhile, there’s still concerns over nationwide protests again erupting in the country. We’ve seen that over the last few years over economic issues as well as over women’s rights, things that still remain a concern for the Iranian public. Now, for the Iranians, they want to negotiate with the West. They still say, even with President-elect Donald Trump’s incoming administration, that they want a deal, that they want to try to reach a deal like they did in 2015, the nuclear deal that saw them limit their nuclear program in exchange for the lifting of economic sanctions. But the Iranians are facing a hardened European attitude based off Iran’s support of Russia in its war on Ukraine and other issues. Meanwhile, the Trump administration is saying that it wants to continue its policy of maximum pressure on Iran. That leaves Iran in a very delicate position of moving forward. And these pressures are only going to increase."
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STORYLINE:
Iran is reeling from a cratering economy and stinging military setbacks across its sphere of influence in the Middle East. Its bad times are likely to get worse once U.S. President-elect Donald Trump returns to the White House with his policy of “maximum pressure” on Iran.
Facing difficulties at home and abroad, Iran last week began an unusual two-month-long military drill. It includes testing air defences near a key nuclear facility and preparing for exercises in waterways vital to the global oil trade.
The military flexing seems aimed at projecting strength, but doubts about its power are high after the past year’s setbacks.
The December overthrow of Syrian President Bashar Assad, who Iran supported for years with money and troops, was a major blow to its self-described “Axis of Resistance” across the region. The “axis” had already been hollowed out by Israel’s punishing offensives last year against two militant groups backed by Iran – Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Israel also attacked Iran directly on two occasions.
At home, Iran’s economy is in tatters.
The U.S. and its allies have maintained stiff sanctions to deter it from developing nuclear weapons — and Iran’s recent efforts to get them lifted through diplomacy have fallen flat. Pollution chokes the skies in the capital, Tehran, as power plants burn dirty fuel in their struggle to avoid outages during winter. And families are struggling to make ends meet as the Iranian currency, the rial, falls to record lows against the U.S. dollar.
As these burdens rise, so does the likelihood of political protests, which have ignited nationwide in recent years over women’s rights and the weak economy.
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