South Korean analyst predicts it will be difficult to impeach Yoon after short-lived martial law

(5 Dec 2024)
RESTRICTION SUMMARY:

ASSOCIATED PRESS
Seoul, South Korea – 5 December 2024
1. Various of Chang Young-soo, politics expert at Korea University
2. SOUNDBITE (Korean) Chang Young-soo, politics expert at Korea University:
"If you look at the ruling party, it is divided between two factions: Pro-Yoon (President Yoon Suk Yeol) and Pro-Han (Han Dong-hoon, ruling party leader). You cannot expect any votes from the Pro-Yoon faction, and even the Pro-Han faction is saying whatever the case is, they will ensure the impeachment motion is not passed. Maybe one or two ruling party lawmakers may go against the party’s decision, but it would be difficult for a large number of them to do the same."
3. Close of law books
4. Wide of Chang
5. SOUNDBITE (Korean) Chang Young-soo, politics expert at Korea University:
"(Even if Yoon survives impeachment vote) The president will find it difficult to voice his opinions not only in his relationship with the opposition party but also with his own ruling party. The ruling party may play a bigger role in government affairs. That is what is most likely to happen. But there are still a few years left in Yoon’s term – it is hard to predict how long that will go on. Many predict his lame duck period may begin in one year, but Yoon may be able to make up for his mistakes during that one year. It is tough to predict."
6. Close of Chang
7. SOUNDBITE (Korean) Chang Young-soo, politics expert at Korea University
"During emergency martial law when the past government created the Yushin Constitution, or other emergency martial laws that were declared in the past, people have these traumas. And to stop the abuse of martial law, they introduced parliament’s right to demand the lifting of martial law. At least we have made sure that such a mechanism works. That is why Tuesday’s martial law was the shortest martial law ever."
8. Wide of Chang

STORYLINE:
A South Korean politics expert predicted on Thursday that it would be difficult for opposition parties to impeach President Yoon Suk Yeol in the wake of his declaration of martial law.

Out of 300 seats, the opposition parties have 192, which means they need only eight more votes from the ruling party to impeach Yoon.

However, the ruling party leader, Han Dong-hoon, said early Thursday that the party will ensure the impeachment motion is not passed.

"Maybe one or two ruling party lawmakers may go against the party’s decision, but it would be difficult for a large number of them to do the same," said Chang Young-soo, a politics expert at Korea University.

He added that even if Yoon survives Saturday’s impeachment vote, he might find himself in a situation in which it would be difficult to even communicate with his own ruling party.

The motion to impeach Yoon was reported to the South Korean parliament early on Thursday morning.

By law, an impeachment motion must be put to a vote between 24 and 72 hours after the motion is reported to the plenary session.

South Korea’s opposition parties submitted the motion to impeach the president over his short-lived declaration of martial law that drew heavily armed troops to encircle parliament before lawmakers climbed walls to reenter the building and unanimously voted to lift his order.

AP video by Seong-bin Kang

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