Explaining Election Day: If the polls just closed, how can AP already declare a winner?

(9 Oct 2024)
RESTRICTION SUMMARY:
 
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ASSOCIATED PRESS
ARCHIVE: Centreville, Virginia – 2 November 2021
1. Various of voters checking in
2. Various of voters
 
ASSOCIATED PRESS
Washington – 27 September 2024
3. SOUNDBITE (English) Stephen Ohlemacher, The Associated Press:
“Some statewide races will be so lopsided that The Associated Press will be able to declare a winner before any of the results are released. At the AP we take into account everything we know about an election. All of the research, all of the past election results, the trends that we’ve seen in that state, the money being spent in the race, the reporting on what’s happening in that race. And then we top it off with something we call VoteCast. VoteCast is the most comprehensive survey of the American electorate. More than 100,000 people will take part in this survey in the days leading up to the election. If those results come in and they confirm what all of the other evidence shows, that it will be a lopsided win, not a close win, not a single digit win, but a win by a wide margin, then we may call a winner right when the statutory poll close time for that state is. The Associated Press will always wait until the polls have closed in a state to declare a winner. That will allow everyone to vote before they know the result.”
  
ASSOCIATED PRESS
Miami Beach, Florida – 23 August 1972
4. STILL of President Richard Nixon giving speech

ASSOCIATED PRESS
Boston – 11 October 1972
5. STILL of Sen. George McGovern on stage at fund-raising rally
 
ASSOCIATED PRESS
Cheyenne, Wyoming – 18 July 2022
6. STILL of Wyoming  Republican Party Headquarters  
 
ASSOCIATED PRESS
Wilson, Wyoming – 16 August 2022
7. STILL of This Way to Vote sign
 
ASSOCIATED PRESS
Washington – 27 September 2024
8. SOUNDBITE (English) Stephen Ohlemacher, The Associated Press:
“When we look at states in which we were able to declare a winner without seeing any results in the past, these are like heavily Democratic or heavily Republican states. A state like Massachusetts. We know a lot about this state. I know that in 1972, Richard Nixon, the Republican, won 49 states. I know the one state that George McGovern, the Democrat, won was Massachusetts, along with the District of Columbia. Massachusetts does not historically vote for Republicans for president. On the other side, Wyoming. Wyoming is a heavily Republican state. Historically, they don’t usually vote for Democrats for president. We will take this kind of information into account when deciding whether to call a race without seeing any results.”
STORYLINE:
Some statewide races will be so lopsided that The Associated Press will be able to declare a winner before any of the results are released.

The AP takes into account everything it knows about an election.
 
All of the research, all of the past election results, the trends that we’ve seen in that state, the money being spent in the race, the reporting on what’s happening in that race.
 
And then tops it off with something called VoteCast.
 
VoteCast is the most comprehensive survey of the American electorate.
 
The Associated Press will always wait until the polls have closed in a state to declare a winner.
 
That will allow everyone to vote before they know the result.
 
When the AP looks at states in which they are able to declare a winner without seeing any results in the past, these are like heavily Democratic or heavily Republican states.
 
A state like Massachusetts.
 
In 1972, Richard Nixon, the Republican, won 49 states.
 
 
 

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