Explaining Election Day: How voter turnout relates to calling races

(8 Oct 2024)
RESTRICTION SUMMARY:

ASSOCIATED PRESS
ARCHIVE: Alexandria, Virginia — 20 September 2024
1. Voters walking by "Vote Here" sign outside a polling place
2. Close of general election ballot
3. Various of voters places ballots into a tabulation machine

ASSOCIATED PRESS
Washington – 25 September 2024
4. SOUNDBITE (English) Robert Yoon, The Associated Press:
++PARTIALLY COVERED++
"There’s a cliche in elections that it all comes down to turnout. Usually when people say that they’re referring to which candidate will win, but it also applies to when a race is ready to be called. So on election night, once the polls have closed two questions need to be answered in terms of when a race is ready to be called. And one is obviously, what is the vote count for each candidate? But then also it’s how many votes are left to be counted? Now that first question, we collect information from every state on the vote count. It’s something we’ve done in every election since 1848."

ASSOCIATED PRESS
ARCHIVE: Phoenix – 10 November 2022
5. Various of election workers counting ballots inside the Maricopa County tabulation center

ASSOCIATED PRESS
Washington – 25 September 2024
6. SOUNDBITE (English) Robert Yoon, The Associated Press:
++PARTIALLY COVERED++
"But the vote count itself is just part of the story. There’s a big difference between being ahead 51% to 49% when just 10% of the votes are counted, than being ahead 51% to 49% when 99% of the votes are counted. So that’s really why it’s important to know how much of the vote counting is left."

ASSOCIATED PRESS
ARCHIVE: Alexandria, Virginia — 20 September 2024
7. Close of ballot being printed at polling place
8. Various of voters inside polling place
9. Close of sticker for the 2024 presidential election

ASSOCIATED PRESS
Washington – 25 September 2024
10. SOUNDBITE (English) Robert Yoon, The Associated Press:
++COVERED++
"Obviously, the best answer to that is to just call up an elections official and say, ‘Hey, how many votes are left to be counted?’ But it’s not something that an elections official is going to immediately know on election night. To get that official total, that’s something that might take, you know, days or weeks after Election Day."

ASSOCIATED PRESS
ARCHIVE: Phoenix – 8 November 2022
11. Various of voters in line outside a Phoenix polling station

ASSOCIATED PRESS
Washington – 25 September 2024
12. SOUNDBITE (English) Robert Yoon, The Associated Press: ++COVERED++
"What we do at the AP is come up with a turnout estimate based on historical data based on past turnout, past vote totals in the state and other election data."
13. SOUNDBITE (English) Robert Yoon, The Associated Press:
++PARTIALLY COVERED++
"So for every set of vote results you see from the AP, you’ll see a percentage of how far along we are in the vote count. And that’s how we arrive at that number by comparing the actual votes cast so far and comparing it against that estimated turnout. That’s a number that we’re constantly monitoring as soon as the polls close. If we get updated information from the states that Election Day turnout is higher than they initially told us, then we’ll reflect that in our estimate and constantly keep it up to date, so we have the best available number."

ASSOCIATED PRESS
ARCHIVE: Houston – 8 November 2022
14. Various of a long line of voters outside a polling place

ASSOCIATED PRESS
ARCHIVE: Alexandria, Virginia — 20 September 2024
15. Close of "Vote Here" sign inside a polling place
STORYLINE:

What’s so difficult about nailing down the total votes cast?

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