(19 Aug 2024)
RESTRICTION SUMMARY:
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ASSOCIATED PRESS
Meldreth, United Kingdom – 19 August 2024
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1. SOUNDBITE (English) Nomi Bar-Yaacov, Associate Fellow of the International Security Programme at Chatham House:
"There are two issues at stake – one is the Democratic Convention in Chicago, commencing today, and there’s a lot of pressure on President Biden to reach a deal and to show that it’s not just that he’s been making a lot of effort for the last ten months, some would say not nearly enough because there was no conditionality on Israeli actions, none whatsoever. The other issue is that, the clock is ticking with Iran and Hezbollah and potentially all of Iran’s proxies of which there are many, organising a coordinated attack or some horrific attack in an unprecedented fashion against Israel. And those two combined – the deadline with the Democratic convention and the deadline of Hezbollah and Iran not willing to hold fire forever – they (Iran) said in discrete channels but they have said it, it’s been made public, that they will give a cease-fire a chance. But they are not going to give a cease-fire a chance forever and I think today really is the make or break day and I think everyone is bracing for it for that reason."
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2. SOUNDBITE (English) Nomi Bar-Yaacov, Associate Fellow of the International Security Programme at Chatham House:
"Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the past has mounted obstacles, time and time again, and not one obstacle and not two, you know, in May, a very senior official involved in the negotiations told me that he (Benjamin Netanyahu) had just added 24, no less, conditions after a deal has already been agreed. So, it’s problematic."
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3. SOUNDBITE (English) Nomi Bar-Yaacov, Associate Fellow of the International Security Programme at Chatham House:
"I think the U.S. has lost patience with its ally’s behaviour, and I think they’re going to, hopefully, inflict a cost, not just leverage, but a cost that Israel won’t be able to fathom if they do not agree to the deal. I think that’s what it boils down to. If leverage isn’t exercised, sufficient leverage, serious leverage, and cost, on Israel by the United States and on Hamas by Qatar – it takes two to tango – then we’re not going to see a deal, but we will see them exposing the issues for the very first time in 10 and a half months, and that’s what we need to watch out for."
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4. SOUNDBITE (English) Nomi Bar-Yaacov, Associate Fellow of the International Security Programme at Chatham House:
"I think the world is waking up to the fact that they want to know – who is preventing the cease-fire from happening? And I do think that the U.S . and the Qataris may be inclined to open that up, as opposed to keeping it quiet also as a tactic, in order to get the parties to agree."
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STORYLINE:
Middle East analyst Nomi Bar-Yaacov told The Associated Press on Monday it was a "make or break day" after U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned that now may be the last chance to get a cease-fire in the Israel-Hamas war.
Bar-Yaacov, a security expert at the Chatham House think tank in London, described the high-stakes moment as the death toll continues to mount in Gaza and Iran and Hezbollah hold fire.
She believes Iran will comply with a cease-fire but the "clock is ticking with Iran."
If the negotiations are unsuccessful we may see the United States and Qatar exposing the issues preventing the cease-fire deal for the very first time in ten and a half months", she added.
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