RFK Jr.’s third-party run has potential to tip scales in swing state such as Michigan, expert says

(13 Aug 2024)
RESTRICTION SUMMARY:

ASSOCIATED PRESS
ARCHIVE: Philadelphia – 9 October 2023
1. Various of a campaign rally featuring presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

ASSOCIATED PRESS
East Lansing, Michigan – 31 July 2024
2. SOUNDBITE (English) Matt Grossmann, Michigan State University professor:
++PARTIALLY COVERED++
“The history of third-party presidential candidates is that they have not done well. Most have faded as we approach Election Day. But occasionally, they have been more likely to take from one candidate than the other. And enough in a close election to make a difference.”

ASSOCIATED PRESS
ARCHIVE: Philadelphia – 9 October 2023
3. SOUNDBITE (English) Robert F. Kennedy Jr., presidential candidate:
“My intention is to spoil it for both of them.”
4. The crowd cheers and waves signs at the Kennedy rally

ASSOCIATED PRESS
FILE: Grand Rapids, Michigan – 20 July 2024
5. Former President Donald Trump listens to a speaker at a campaign rally

ASSOCIATED PRESS
ARCHIVE: Romulus, Michigan – 7 August 2024
6. Vice President Kamala Harris joins her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, onstage during a rally

ASSOCIATED PRESS
East Lansing, Michigan – 31 July 2024
7. SOUNDBITE (English) Matt Grossmann, Michigan State University professor:
++PARTIALLY COVERED++
“RFK Jr. initially did not appear to be taking disproportionately from Biden or Trump. In the very early polls of Harris versus Trump, he appears to be taking potentially more second-choice votes from Trump than from Harris. So, that’s maybe a change from what most people thought would happen to a former Democrat who had run in the Democratic primary and obviously has a well-known Democratic last name.”

ASSOCIATED PRESS
ARCHIVE: Los Angeles – 30 March 2024
8. STILL of a supporter wearing campaign buttons at an event for Kennedy

ASSOCIATED PRESS
ARCHIVE: Grand Rapids, Michigan – 20 July 2024
9. Supporters cheer in anticipation of Trump arriving at the rally site

ASSOCIATED PRESS
ARCHIVE: East Lansing, Michigan – 31 July 2024
10. SOUNDBITE (English) Matt Grossmann, Michigan State University professor:
++FULLY COVERED++
“It certainly is the case that Michigan is likely to be close.”

ASSOCIATED PRESS
ARCHIVE: Grand Rapids, Michigan – 20 July 2024
11. Supporters cheer for Trump as he walks onstage

ASSOCIATED PRESS
East Lansing, Michigan – 31 July 2024
12. SOUNDBITE (English) Matt Grossmann, Michigan State University professor:
++FULLY COVERED++
“So, that means that this third-party candidacy, even if it only takes a small number of votes, could be enough to tip the scales one way or the other.”

ASSOCIATED PRESS
East Lansing, Michigan – 31 July 2024
13. SOUNDBITE (English) Matt Grossmann, Michigan State University professor:
++PARTIALLY COVERED++
“But at least at the beginning of Harris’ candidacy, what we see is that she’s taken some of those voters who were normal Democratic voters, who had parked themselves in this third-party category because they were unhappy with Joe Biden. So if that continues, then the people left over would be the people who are mostly Republican voters who are dissatisfied with their candidate. Certainly, that’s going to include some people from the anti-vaccine movement where Trump and RFK Jr are both associated. But I think I would put it a little bit larger than that as just a constituency that is dissatisfied with their own party’s candidate. And right at this very moment, there’s more Republicans in that category than Democrats.”

ASSOCIATED PRESS
ARCHIVE: Romulus, Michigan – 7 August 2024
15. A supporter waves a “Kamala” sign

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