(4 Jul 2024)
RESTRICTION SUMMARY:
ASSOCIATED PRESS
London – 4 July 2024
1. Various exteriors of Bush House at King’s College London
2. Various of audience and panel speakers at the King’s College London Election Night 2024
3. Various of Anand Menon, professor of European Politics and Foreign Affairs at King’s College London, during panel
4. SOUNDBITE (English) Anand Menon, professor of European Politics and Foreign Affairs at King’s College London: ++NIGHT SHOT++
"I expected the broad range of the Labour majority, because the MRPs have predicted it. There are certain things about it I didn’t expect, the high number of seats for Reform, SNP have underperformed compared to what I had expected, and the Tories have actually done pretty well compared to some of the dire predictions. But this is an exit poll. We’ll have to watch how things unfold in the evening to be absolutely certain how things have turned out."
5. Various of Houses of Parliament and London skyline ++NIGHT SHOTS++
6. SOUNDBITE (English) Anand Menon, professor of European Politics and Foreign Affairs at King’s College London: ++NIGHT SHOT++
"The exit poll has got more reliable over time. They’ve honed their mathematical model. They’ve honed the way they do the surveys at the polling stations. However, as always, it is merely a forecast, a projection. If we really want to know what happens we’re going to have to stay up all night and watch the results come in because a lot of the races that the exit poll has forecast are going to be very, very close indeed."
7. Various of audience and panel speakers at the King’s College London Election Night 2024
8. SOUNDBITE (English) Anand Menon, professor of European Politics and Foreign Affairs at King’s College London: ++NIGHT SHOT++
"We’ve got used to politics as pantomime. A very unstable Conservative Party with lots of infighting, with lots of ministerial churn, with no stability. I think we’re going to have to get used to again to relatively stable government, with ministers staying in power for quite a long time, and with government being able to think beyond the very short term as to medium term objectives. Now, it’s an open question as to whether that makes a huge difference in terms of policy outcomes, but the style of governing I think is going to be very different to that which we’ve gotten used to over the last decade or so."
9. Wide of audience and panel speakers at the King’s College London Election Night 2024
STORYLINE:
An exit poll in the UK election projecting Britain’s Labour Party was headed for a landslide victory was "expected", an expert has told The Associated Press.
The poll released moments after voting closed indicated that center-left Labour’s leader Keir Starmer will be the country’s next prime minister.
He will face a jaded electorate impatient for change against a gloomy backdrop of economic malaise, mounting distrust in institutions and a fraying social fabric.
"I expected the broad range of the Labour majority, because the MRPs have predicted it," Anand Menon, professor of European Politics and Foreign Affairs at King’s College London, said.
However, he said there were other projections in the exit poll he wasn’t expecting.
"I didn’t expect, the high number of seats for Reform, SNP (Scottish National Party) have underperformed compared to what I had expected, and the Tories have actually done pretty well compared to some of the predictions."
Since 2005, there has been a single exit poll in the United Kingdom for each general election.
The quality of the projections have become increasingly accurate, said Menon.
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