The big bet on Thursday’s UK election is not who will be the next prime minister

(3 Jul 2024)
RESTRICTION SUMMARY:

ASSOCIATED PRESS
London, UK – 3 July 2024
1. Leon Blackman, spokesperson for Oddschecker, looking at election-result projections
2. Close of seats
3. Various of Blackman looking at maps
4. SOUNDBITE (English) Leon Blackman, spokesperson for Oddschecker:
"This is the busiest couple of months we’ve had in years. It
surpasses the 2019 election, it surpasses the Tory leader market that we had in 2022. This is super busy."
5. Blackman speaking
6. SOUNDBITE (English) Leon Blackman, spokesperson for Oddschecker:
"So betting on the main markets is down 40%. So who’s going to win the most seats, who’s going to be the government after the next election, that’s down 40% with us compared to 2019. But the constituency markets are up 20%. So we’ve seen a big spike in people looking at local constituency odds and betting on those."
7. Various of Blackman looking at graph
8. SOUNDBITE (English) Leon Blackman, spokesperson for Oddschecker:
"Clacton, where (Nigel) Farage is standing, is by far the busiest on our site for traffic. Everybody’s coming in, having a look. When Farage announced he was standing in Clacton, that was our busiest betting market for that day, even considering that we have the Euros on."
9. Close of betting odds
10. SOUNDBITE (English) Leon Blackman, spokesperson for Oddschecker:
"They take emotion out of it. They’re not going to bet on the Green Party to win the election because they like the Green Party. They’re going to look for niche little angles, keep their ears to the ground as to what’s happening in the political world and seeing if they can find that value, where they can make some money on a constituency, a vote share percentage, how many seats Reform is going to win."
11. Various of Blackman writing
STORYLINE:
Britain’s general election is a big event for political gamblers.

A day before the election, an online gambling site on Wednesday said betting is focused on many of the 650 constituencies that are up for grabs as well as breakdowns of how many seats each party wins.

Oddschecker saw a "big spike" in people looking at local constituency odds and betting on those, spokesperson Leon Blackman said on Wednesday.

Blackman said one of the constituencies with the busiest traffic was Clacton-On-Sea, where Nigel Farage, leader of the anti-immigration Reform UK party, stands as a candidate.

In gambling-crazy Britain, politics is fair game for betting.

The subject has received more attention than normal in this election because of a scandal revolving around what date the election would be set โ€” one of the many gambling possibilities.

Tens of millions of pounds are expected to be wagered on this year’s election, but they will be dwarfed in the autumn by the amount bet on the U.S. election.

The presidential election became the worldโ€™s biggest betting event on the Betfair Exchange in 2020 with 1.7 billion pounds ($2.16 billion) wagered.

AP video shot by Kwiyeon Ha

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