Analyst in UK describes aftermath of Iran’s attack on Israel as ‘hugely dangerous moment’

(15 Apr 2024)
RESTRICTION SUMMARY:

ASSOCIATED PRESS
London – 15 April 2024
1. SOUNDBITE (English) Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa programme at Chatham House think tank:
"So certainly this was a very brazen attack. Over 300 drones and missiles, and, perhaps, it would have been more of a victory if the international coalition had been less precise. On the other hand, I think Iran wasn’t trying to inflict maximum damage, but was was trying to show what it could do and have Israel think about the Islamic Republic in a less complacent way. The nature of the conflict between Iran and Israel has always been rather gray. There hasn’t been a lot of direct responsibility taken by either party. Iran’s role and support for the axis of resistance is very much in the shadows. Even though we all know that it is a patron and a big supporter of the network. And so this is about elevating the tensions and making it more direct. Of course, this creates a ripple effect of uncertainty. And of course, it increases the risk of regional war in a way that we haven’t seen before."
++BLACK FRAMES++
2. SOUNDBITE (English) Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa programme at Chatham House think tank:
"I think this is really the objective. Iran felt like if it didn’t respond now, you know, this drip, drip effort at taking out Iran’s, partners, key coordinators across the region, senior figures of Hamas, Hezbollah, alongside its own leadership would just continue. And so this is about, reestablishing red lines that I think, perhaps had become blurred since October 7th."
++BLACK FRAMES++
3. SOUNDBITE (English) Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa programme at Chatham House think tank:
"Well, I think the most important thing is that, you know, while Israel’s defense and an international coalition came together for Israel’s defense, and certainly this is a moment that Israel can and should capitalize on, the conversation has shifted very much away from Gaza. And the war in Gaza continues. Reports of famine being existent are very much there. There is no hostage negotiations currently underway. And without addressing that conflict, you know, the threat of a broader regional war will continue to spread across the region. And this is a hugely dangerous moment that actually requires a broad scale of international, support and mediation in the front of the cameras and behind the cameras."
++BLACK FRAMES++
4. SOUNDBITE (English) Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa programme at Chatham House think tank:
"This is a dangerous moment, because this is the first time we are witnessing a direct confrontation between Israel and the Islamic Republic of Iran. This is a confrontation that has been playing out behind the scenes in a shadow war for many years. And here it’s come, you know, out of the shadows and has the potential to spread across the region and involve many regional states as well as the United States. So, you know, worldwide attention and international diplomacy is urgently needed."
++ENDS++

STORYLINE:
Think tank Chatham House’s Middle East director described on Monday the aftermath of Iran’s attack on Israel as a "hugely dangerous moment."

Sanam Vakil, the director of the Middle East and North Africa programme at Chatham House in London, said a confrontation between Iran and Israel which has been playing out behind the scenes for many years has "come out of the shadows and has the potential to spread across the region and involve many regional states as well as the United States."

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